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#1 Overall - Grading The Picks: AWL Edition



Over the last several weeks I've been cataloging EVERY SINGLE transaction in Wombat history.  Adds, drops, trades, keepers, the draft - all of it.  In one giant spreadsheet, that we'll be able to filter, sort, and even get reporting on eventually (thanks to GM Cyphdad on the extra help).  While I complete this monumental task, here's a sampling of the data I was able to quickly sort: Every #1 overall pick in our history, in list form.  


2007 - Sitting Ducks - Alex Rodriguez - 3B 2008 - Cold Notes - Curtis Granderson - OF 2009 - Cold Notes - James Shields - SP 2010 - Baseball Furies - Dustin Pedroia- 2B 2011 - Baseball Furies - Dustin Pedroia - 2B 2012 - Kingslayers - Robinson Cano - 2B  2013 - Ham Sandwiches (via Baseball Furies) - Yoenis Cesepedes 2014 - Cold Notes - Masahiro Tanaka - SP 2015 - Baseball Furies - Corey Kluber - SP 2016 - Kev Bombs - Jose Altuve - 2B 2017 - Ham Sandwiches - Miguel Cabrera - 1B 2018 - Moonschatz - Shohei Ohtani - SP/DH 2019 - Moonschatz - Eloy Jimenez - OF 2007 - Power Bolts - Alfonso Soriano - OF 2008 - Tommy Johns - Aramis Ramirez - 3B 2009 - Schatzy Turtles - Manny Ramirez - OF 2010 - Two Starts - Troy Tulowitzki - SS 2011 - Han Solo Shots - Carlos Gonzalez - OF 2012 - Han Solo Shots - Matt Holliday - OF 2013 - Crab Cakes (via Tommy Johns) - Matt Cain - SP 2014 - Tommy Johns - Jay Bruce - OF 2015 - Kaiden's Krew - Freddie Freeman - 1B 2016 - Tommy Johns - Corey Seager - SS 2017 - Han Solo Shots - Charlie Blackmon - OF 2018 - Schatzy Turtles - Yu Darvish - SP 2019 - Power Bolts - Anthony Rendon - 3B

Let's analyze the AWL today, one by one. 


2007

Sitting Ducks - Alex Rodriguez - 3B

Grade: A+

The first ever pick in Wombat, Alex Rodriguez would go on to have arguably the greatest season in Wombat history in our inaugural year.  I debated giving him just an "A" here, since A-Rod is one of the few blacklisted players in our history, but those first few years he just terrorized the league.  


Should Have Picked:

You could argue Roy Halladay (1st round, #4 overall) would have been the better pick in that draft, due to longevity / not being an asshole, but it's a tough call.


 

2008

Cold Notes - Curtis Granderson - OF

Grade: D

You know how when you ask older people "Where were you when JFK was shot?", they instantly remember? Or for our generation, about 9/11? Well, for the people that sat in the Blazement on February 3rd 2008, we all remember where we were when Brandon shocked the Wombat world by taking Curtis Granderson #1


For months it was assumed he'd take the 21 year old Felix Hernandez, coming off of a very solid year prior.  Instead, he went with Granderson, who quietly, was a monster in 2007.  On the face of it, you can absolutely defend the pick.  In reality though, Granderson's 2008 was okay, but not close to the highs of 2007.  


What people remember is him passing on Felix, but most forget that Hernandez would be passed on at #2 as well - Zach took Alex Rios there.  If Granderson is a D grade, then Rios is an F-


Should Have Picked:

Felix (1st round, #3), c'mon.



2009

Cold Notes - James Shields - SP Grade: B-


It's easy to see James Shields name and see the version of him that has been terrible for teams like the White Sox and Padres, but at one point Big Game James was a true ace in Wombat.  Unfortunately, 2009 wasn't one of those years for him.  He was perfectly respectable as a starter for the Cold Notes, who actually dealt Shields in late May to the Ham Sandwiches, in this exchange: 


Cold Notes receive: 

Adam Jones - OF Rick Porcello - SP

Ben Zobrist - SS


Ham Sandwiches receive: 

James Shields - SP

Matt Wieters - C

Nick Swisher - OF

Coco Crisp - OF

Scott Downs - RP


It was a win-win for both teams, as each of them would make their respective pennant game, but lose there.  Neither Jones or Shields would be kept by either team, so in that respect, it was a wash.  Overall though, a decent pick for the Cold Notes.  


Should Have Picked:

Zach Greinke (2nd round, #15) was something of a meme at that point between Jon and I (along with Billy Butler) but in 2009 he'd break out, in one of the best pitching years in Wombat history. 



2010

Baseball Furies - Dustin Pedroia- 2B

Grade: B+


This is an interesting transaction to grade.  On one hand, Pedroia was a solid looking pick at the time, just a year removed from an MVP year.  Mike took him #1, but then would flip him in what I believe in a three way deal, that was: 


Baseball Furies receive: 

Jake Arietta - SP

Derek Holland - SP

Caesar Izturis - SS

Meglomaniacs 1st round pick in 2011


Cold Notes receive:

Ervin Sanatana - SP

Andrew Bailey - RP

Cliff Pennington - SS


Megalomaniacs receive: 

Dustin Pedroia - 2B

Marco Scutaro - SS


It's possible this isn't 100% right, because we didn't track traded picks back then.  That said, I think based off the 2011 draft, this is correct.  Anyway, Pedroia would go on to Dean's team but have to be dropped right before the World Series, due to being out for the year.  Didn't matter Dean won, cause...Mega Magic.  Interestingly enough, (SPOILER WARNING) dropping Pedroia would lead to the 2011 #1 overall pick being Pedroia AGAIN by Mike. 


Should Have Picked:

Robinson Cano (2nd round, #11) or David Price (3rd round, #23) weren't at the top of anyone's lists then, but by the end of the year, they were clear stars. 



2011 Baseball Furies - Dustin Pedroia- 2B Grade: A- The mad man did it again.  All because Pedroia missed major time in 2010, Dean had no choice but to drop him, or risk losing via tie on the bench.  This time Mike wouldn't trade Pedroia, keeping him for 2 more years after this pick.  2011 was a bounce back year for Pedroia, and he'd have one more great year in 2013 before falling off due to age / being an asshole.  


Should Have Picked: 

Jose Bautista (1st round, #2) would have been a better pick, and seemed a little more obvious at #1 - he was just coming off a 54 home run year, and only dropped because he was on the Megas in 2010, who were already set on keeping their monster core of Miggy, Felix, Longo, and Price.  



2012

Kingslayers - Robinson Cano - 2B  Grade: A+ 


You may be wondering, how is Robinson Cano in his prime available in that draft? Well, in 2011 Jon traded Cano to myself, in this exchange: 


Ham Sandwiches receive: 

Robinson Cano - 2B

Justin Masterson - SP

Jordan Walden - RP


Kingslayers receive: 

Kyle Drabek - SP

Ham Sandwiches 1st round pick in 2012 Ham Sandwiches 3rd round pick in 2012

A promise to all that is holy, signed in blood, that the Ham Sandwiches would NOT keep Robinson Cano


Cano did his part in getting the Hammies to the World Series, but he wasn't enough to defeated Mega Magic.  Jon knew he'd likely get the #1 pick in the draft the next year, and snatched him up quick.  He'd remain a Kingslayer for another year plus, while producing excellent numbers. 


Should Have Picked:

Jon could have avoided needing to trade Chris Sale for Yu Darvish (first round, #5) by picking him #1, instead of having him go to Bran in the first.  Max Scherzer (2nd round, #15) would have also been an excellent choice.  That said, Cano was the obvious pick here.  



2013

Ham Sandwiches (via Baseball Furies) - Yoenis Cesepedes Grade: C-


I found myself with the first and third overall picks in 2013, thanks to a trade with the Furies the previous year - I'm not even sure which deal it was, although I think it was a Justin Verlander for Adam Jones swap, with me getting his first along with AJo? 

Anyway, boy did I blow those picks.  


Cesepedes dealt with nagging injuries in 2013, but had a  relatively okay sophomore year.  At #3, I took the immortal Matt Wieters.  Oof.  


Should Have Picked: 

Max Scherzer's (first round, #2) last time in the draft was 2013, hasn't seen it since. It's such a better pick than Cesepedes that he downgrades the draft grade alone from a C to a C-.



2014

Cold Notes - Masahiro Tanaka - SP Grade: Incomplete


Tanaka was the highest regarded prospect to come over from Japan since Dice-K, a Wombat favorite.  Unlike his Granderson shocker pick, Brandon announced to the league weeks before that Tanaka was his guy.  Had a shoulder injury not cut short his rookie year, he likely would have been a keeper for the Cold Notes.  Instead, he's bounced around a bit in our league, and continued to deal with injuries here and there. 


Should Have Picked: 

Jose Altuve (first round, #8) was the last pick in the first round in 2014, and would have been the perfect pick for Bran - that said, no one really had him pegged that high, as he wasn't even the first second baseman off the board that year - that'd be Jason Kipnis.  



2015

Baseball Furies - Corey Kluber - SP Grade: A+


Kluber won the Cy in 2014 with the Megalomaniacs, but once again Dean was left with a tough keeper choice - go with Kluber, or the runner up to the Cy, and Mega legend, Felix Hernandez.  He'd go with King Felix, and Mike couldn't have been more happy. 


Klubot would lead the Furies to one of their better records in their history, and be a keeper for him at the start of the 2016 year.  A can't miss pick, that Mike didn't miss. 


Should Have Picked: 

Mookie Betts (round 2, pick #13) would have been a stretch, so I can't even really list him here.  Kluber was the right call at the time, easily.



2016

Kev Bombs - Jose Altuve - 2B Grade: A+


Another year, another tough choice for the Megas.  The 2015 champs knew they were keeping Machado, Correa, and Felix - now it was old man Miggy vs Altuve.  Dean kept Miggy, in what would be his (SPOILER ALERT FOR 2017) last elite level year.  While he made some good calls on who to keep, it still hurt to drop Altuve.  It didn't take long until Kev and Dean figured out something, so he could get his boy back.  In late April of that year the following trade was made: 


Megalomaniacs receive: 

Jose Altuve - 2B Matt Moore- SP


Kev Bombs receive: 

Felix Hernandez - SP Nomar Mazara - OF

Corey Dickerson - OF Brian Dozier - 2B


Now, you can say the pick doesn't deserve an A+ since he didn't keep him for more than a month - however, that package turned out to be enough for Kevin to have an amazing season, winning the division, and the World Series.  While Altuve has had staying power, a ring is a ring. 


Should Have Picked: 

No one really close here - Carlos Carrasco (first round, #3) makes a case, but not like Altuve.



2017

Ham Sandwiches - Miguel Cabrera - 1B Grade: B- I was so pumped about taking Dean's boy that I spent time learning Photoshop, just to make this: 

Miggy just wasn't the same off the Megas though, and it became obvious quickly.  Why the grade doesn't get a C or worse is Cabrera was flipped prior to many injuries to the Cold Notes in a mega deal, involving George Springer, Yoan Moncada, Jonathan Schoop, and more.  Cabrera's career on the Cold Notes would end unceremoniously, leading to him not being kept for the first time in our league's history.   Should Have Picked:  Again, Carlos Carrasco (first round, #3) is slept on, and would have been a good choice.  

2018:  Moonschatz - Shohei Ohtani - SP/DH Grade: Incomplete Too little time has passed since last year to really say how good this pick is.  When healthy, Ohtani looks like he's absolutely living up to the #1 pick.  If he can stay on the field, I imagine Matt will be able to keep him for several years, leading to a high grade here. 

2019:

Moonschatz - Eloy Jimenez - OF Grade: Incomplete


Once again Matt shocks the world, and once again, so far - he looks right.  Eloy hasn't lit the world on fire just yet, but the fact he's even up is a shocker.  Between him and Ohtani, Matt has a solid foundation towards the future.



Next week: 

NWL #1 picks in review

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